FantasySense Forecast · 2026 season
Projected fantasy points for every player the sportsbooks have priced this week, built from Las Vegas player props.
Updated Sun Oct 18, 7:05 PM ET · lines for 14 of 14 games
Week 6's last game kicks off Mon 8:15 PM ET, and gets one more update about an hour before. Week 7 projections will be posted Thursday, October 22, by 12:30 PM ET.
12.3 from Las Vegas lines · 12.3 FantasySense projection, where no line is posted yet
| # | Player | Matchup | Proj | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush yds | Rush TD | Floor | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen BUF@ LVKicked off | @ LVKicked off | 24.6 | 244 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 36 | 0.9 | 13.2 | 34.6 |
| 2 | Brock Purdy SFvs WASMon 8:15 PM ET | vs WASMon 8:15 PM ET | 20.6 | 247 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 20 | 0.2 | 9.6 | 30.5 |
| 3 | Matthew Stafford LAvs ARIKicked off | vs ARIKicked off | 19.9 | 282 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.0 | 9.1 | 29.6 |
| 4 | Drake Maye NEvs NYJKicked off | vs NYJKicked off | 19.4 | 236 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 29 | 0.2 | 8.8 | 29.1 |
| 5 | Dak Prescott DAL@ GBKicked off | @ GBKicked off | 19.0 | 275 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 10 | 0.1 | 8.4 | 28.5 |
| 6 | Jordan Love GBvs DALKicked off | vs DALKicked off | 18.9 | 277 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 6 | 0.1 | 8.3 | 28.4 |
| 7 | Jayden Daniels WAS@ SFMon 8:15 PM ET | @ SFMon 8:15 PM ET | 18.7 | 208 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 41 | 0.3 | 8.1 | 28.1 |
| 8 | Caleb Williams CHI@ ATLKicked off | @ ATLKicked off | 18.1 | 229 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 20 | 0.2 | 7.4 | 27.5 |
| 9 | Patrick Mahomes KCvs LACKicked off | vs LACKicked off | 16.5 | 224 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 16 | 0.2 | 7.8 | 27.1 |
| 10 | Kirk Cousins LVvs BUFKicked off | vs BUFKicked off | 16.3 | 252 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 2 | 0.0 | 7.8 | 26.6 |
| 11 | Tyler Shough NO@ NYGKicked off | @ NYGKicked off | 15.8 | 229 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 12 | 0.2 | 7.4 | 25.9 |
| 12 | C.J. Stroud HOU@ JAXKicked off | @ JAXKicked off | 15.6 | 252 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 10 | 0.1 | 7.0 | 25.7 |
| 13 | Deshaun Watson CLEvs BALKicked off | vs BALKicked off | 15.5 | 203 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 33 | 0.1 | 6.8 | 25.6 |
| 14 | Trevor Lawrence JAXvs HOUKicked off | vs HOUKicked off | 15.4 | 229 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 14 | 0.1 | 6.6 | 25.5 |
| 15 | Daniel Jones INDvs TENKicked off | vs TENKicked off | 15.0 | 227 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 7 | 0.1 | 6.1 | 24.9 |
| 16 | Bryce Young CAR@ PHIKicked off | @ PHIKicked off | 14.9 | 236 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 11 | 0.1 | 6.0 | 24.7 |
| 17 | Michael Penix Jr. ATLvs CHIKicked off | vs CHIKicked off | 14.8 | 236 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 3 | 0.1 | 6.0 | 24.5 |
| 18 | Jacoby Brissett ARI@ LAKicked off | @ LAKicked off | 14.6 | 238 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 11 | 0.1 | 5.9 | 24.3 |
| 19 | Jalon Daniels TBvs PITKicked off | vs PITKicked off | 14.1 | 174 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 37 | 0.2 | 6.2 | 23.9 |
| 20 | Jameis Winston NYGvs NOKicked off | vs NOKicked off | 13.7 | 221 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 5 | 0.1 | 6.7 | 23.8 |
| 21 | Sam Darnold SEA@ DENKicked off | @ DENKicked off | 13.6 | 224 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 6 | 0.1 | 6.8 | 23.7 |
| 22 | Bo Nix DENvs SEAKicked off | vs SEAKicked off | 13.3 | 198 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 15 | 0.1 | 6.3 | 23.3 |
| 23 | Justin Herbert LAC@ KCKicked off | @ KCKicked off | 13.2 | 195 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 26 | 0.1 | 6.1 | 23.1 |
| 24 | Aaron Rodgers PIT@ TBKicked off | @ TBKicked off | 13.0 | 225 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1 | 0.0 | 5.6 | 22.7 |
| 25 | Tyler Huntley BAL@ CLEKicked off | @ CLEKicked off | 12.6 | 169 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 26 | 0.2 | 4.8 | 22.0 |
| 26 | Cam Ward TEN@ INDKicked off | @ INDKicked off | 12.3 | 204 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 12 | 0.1 | 4.2 | 21.5 |
| 27 | Geno Smith NYJ@ NEKicked off | @ NEKicked off | 11.8 | 214 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 9 | 0.1 | 3.6 | 21.1 |
| 28 | Tanner McKee PHIvs CARKicked off | vs CARKicked off | 11.3 | 203 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 7 | 0.1 | 3.0 | 20.9 |
No player on this tab matches. Try another position.
Projected points use the scoring picked above. Dark numbers come from Las Vegas lines. Grey numbers are FantasySense's own, not the books': a stat no line priced is the usual figure for the position. Floor and ceiling: about one week in ten a player scores less than his floor, and about one in ten more than his ceiling.
5 drafted players without a number for week 6, most drafted first: on bye, or left out by the books of a game they have priced, which usually means an injury question. Players whose lines are simply not up yet are in the table above with an early estimate, and this page updates every day from Thursday to Sunday.
4 drafted players not playing in week 6, most drafted first: on injured reserve or another reserve list, on the exempt list, suspended or on no team's roster, out or doubtful on this week's official injury report, or ruled out by his team before the report says so. A player out last week stays here until his team files this week's report, or he practises again.
Sportsbooks post an over/under line for each player's yards and catches, and a price on whether he scores. The lines move through the week as news comes in.
I take the consensus across US sportsbooks, turn each line into an expected stat line, and score it under the scoring you pick above. A player is ranked on the books' numbers once they have posted the line his position depends on: passing yards for a quarterback, rushing yards for a running back, and receiving yards for a receiver or tight end.
Most yardage lines go up a day or two before kickoff, so early in the week many drafted players have only a touchdown price, or nothing yet. Rather than leave them off the table, I give each one an early estimate, marked est: his own per-game figures so far (this season first, last season at a lower weight), pulled toward what a player drafted where he was usually does. Where the books have priced his touchdown, that price scales the estimate up or down. The moment his yardage line posts, the estimate goes and the Vegas projection takes its place.
Checked on 2025, the estimate ran about 0.2 points a game less accurate than the Vegas number it stands in for, and far better than leaving the player unranked. A player the books have left out of a game they have priced is not estimated: that silence almost always means he is hurt.
Players who are known to be out are listed separately under Out: anyone on injured reserve or another reserve list, on the exempt list, suspended or on no team's roster, and anyone ruled out or doubtful on his team's official injury report for the week. Because the reports lag the news, a player whose team has already said he will miss games is added by hand, marked "per team news", through the week he is expected back. A player ruled out last week stays there until his team's next report, or until he practises again.
The two columns on the right show a bad week and a big week. In about one week in ten, a player scores less than his floor, and in about one in ten, more than his ceiling. A floor of 0 means a scoreless week is a real possibility. Both assume he plays.
They come from how real games turned out: about 12,000 player-games from 2023 to 2025, each compared with its Vegas projection. When I checked the ranges on seasons they were not built from, about 1 player in 10 beat his ceiling, and about 1 in 10 of those with a floor above zero fell short of it.
The numbers refresh around noon Eastern every day from Thursday to Sunday, and three more times on Friday and Saturday afternoons and evenings. Every game also gets a last update in the hour before kickoff, after the teams name their inactive players, and keeps it. There is no update on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday, apart from the one before Monday night's game, because the books have not yet posted lines for most of the coming week's games. Kickers and team defenses are not ranked yet.
Player lines: The Odds API. Schedules, rosters and injury reports: nflverse. Drafted-player list: Fantasy Football Calculator. FantasySense does not take bets or send anyone to a sportsbook.