Every Tuesday I grade the Forecast's Vegas board against what actually happened. Not the picks I would make with hindsight: the board as it stood at the last pull before each kickoff, Sunday morning for most of the slate, graded on every start/sit call it implied. Week 3 was a good week for the lines, and a bad week for anyone who benched Bijan Robinson after his 8 points in week 2 (not that anyone would actually do that).
It was also a week that shows why a scorecard needs more than a table. Two of the players who would top the list of misses, De'Von Achane and Justin Jefferson, left their games hurt on their team's first drive. A line cannot price an injury that has not happened yet, so they are listed apart rather than counted against the board.
The scorecard
Every game's lines were frozen at the Forecast's last pull before kickoff: Thursday September 24 at 9:09 AM Pacific for the first game and Sunday September 27 at 9:09 AM Pacific for the rest. That board priced 237 players at quarterback, running back, receiver and tight end. Of every pair of them at the same position, it put the higher scorer first 69.4% of the time, across 7,962 pairs (somewhere between 66% and 73%, allowing for one week's luck). Its projections missed by 4.2 points a player on average.
| Position | Right calls | Pairs |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 57.5% | 496 |
| RB | 71.7% | 1,879 |
| WR | 71.2% | 4,602 |
| TE | 62.5% | 985 |
Quarterbacks were the weak spot for the second week running, 59% last week and 57.5% this week, while receivers, the position with by far the most calls, came in at 71%.
Against the habits
A number on its own means little, so here is the same week graded three ways on the 153 players every method can rank: the board, last week's points, and draft position.
| How you pick | Right calls | Range (one week's luck) |
|---|---|---|
| The Vegas board | 69.6% | 65%–74% |
| Last week's points | 62.7% | 59%–66% |
| Last three weeks | 64.7% | 61%–69% |
| Draft position | 66.8% | 63%–70% |
The board beat draft position by +2.8 calls per hundred this week, but the range on that runs from -0.8 to +6.1: one week cannot settle it.
Beat the line
| Player | Projected | Scored | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL) | 18.0 | 33.3 | +15.3 |
| Noah Fant (TE, NO) | 2.0 | 15.3 | +13.3 |
| Sam Darnold (QB, SEA) | 14.6 | 27.7 | +13.0 |
| George Kittle (TE, SF) | 7.5 | 20.2 | +12.7 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, DET) | 22.0 | 34.4 | +12.3 |
Robinson was the week's biggest beat: 33.3 points against a line worth 18.0, one week after scoring 8.1. Noah Fant, projected 2.0, scored 15.3, and nobody should feel bad about that one: a two-point projection is the line saying "not this week", and most weeks somebody with a two-point projection has a fifteen-point day. Sam Darnold's 27.7 against 14.6 and George Kittle's 20.2 against 7.5 are the ones a reader might actually have had on the bench.
Fell short
| Player | Projected | Scored | Difference | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye (QB, NE) | 16.8 | 3.8 | -13.0 | Continued struggles |
| Jadarian Price (RB, SEA) | 9.4 | 0.2 | -9.2 | Fumbled early, saw less of the ball after |
| Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND) | 16.2 | 7.2 | -9.0 | Indianapolis struggled to run vs. Houston |
| Josh Allen (QB, BUF) | 24.1 | 16.5 | -7.6 | 3 turnovers |
| Tetairoa McMillan (WR, CAR) | 9.2 | 1.7 | -7.5 | Inconsistent offense vs. Cleveland; Coker injury |
Drake Maye is the week's real miss: 3.8 points against a 16.8 line. Jonathan Taylor played 85% of Indianapolis's and scored 7.2 against 16.2 after 22 and 25 in his first two weeks. Jadarian Price managed 0.2 on 19 snaps against 9.4, and Josh Allen's 16.5 would be a fine day for most quarterbacks and was 7.6 short of his line.
Left hurt in the first half
These players would be on the list above, and are not, because they left the game injured in the first half and did not come back. A line cannot price an injury that has not happened yet, so they are not counted as misses by the board.
| Player | Projected | Scored | Difference | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane (RB, MIA) | 12.8 | 1.7 | -11.1 | injured on a play at Q1 10:42 and did not return; played 4 snaps (5% of the offense's, usually 81%) — last touch on his team's first drive |
| Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN) | 11.0 | 3.2 | -7.8 | played 7 snaps (12% of the offense's, usually 96%) — last touch on his team's first drive |
| Jalen Coker (WR, CAR) | 8.5 | 1.8 | -6.7 | played 28 snaps (36% of the offense's, usually 80%) — last touch on his team's drive 5 of 12, Q2; listed questionable pregame (ankle) |
Achane went down on Miami's first drive after four snaps. Jefferson left with an ankle injury after seven. Jalen Coker, listed questionable with an ankle before the game, played 28 snaps and was not seen after the second quarter.
Priced but did not play, and graded at zero: Tyson Bagent (QB, projected 11.3, did not start in favor of Case Keenum), Emari Demercado (RB, projected 1.9).
What to take from it
Two things. The board was right about seven calls in ten in a week with star injuries in it, and it beat every habit I compare it with, by margins that, against last week and the last three weeks, are clear of one week's luck. Against draft position they are not, and draft position remains a better guide in September than most people treat it.
And when a player you started scores three points, check whether he played before you decide the projection was wrong.
Method: the FantasySense Forecast's board for week 3, each game's lines as they stood at the last pull before kickoff (9:09 AM Pacific on game day), turned into points under standard scoring. "Right calls" counts every pair of priced players at the same position with different scores and asks whether the board ranked the higher scorer first; a priced player who did not play scores zero. Ranges resample whole games 2,000 times. Last week and draft position are graded on the same pairs, for the players who have both; draft positions are Fantasy Football Calculator's standard ADP. Box scores are nflverse's. Lines are derived values from The Odds API.